🔗 Share this article

Cyclone Melissa is forecast to escalate to a rare Category 5 hurricane as it shifts towards Jamaica, bringing life-threatening flash flooding and rock falls.

This weather system, which recorded winds of up to 120 mph as of 0600 Greenwich Mean Time, is presently veering toward the northwest in the Caribbean and is projected to hit the coast by early next week, as reported by weather experts.

Warnings of electricity outages and disruption to utilities have been released as Melissa brings up to 30 inches of rainfall and storm surges as high as 4m above ground. "Find safe refuge immediately," inhabitants have been advised.

The cyclone is the 13th named storm in the ongoing Atlantic storm period, which typically ends in the eleventh month.

Category Five Hurricane Threat

A category five hurricane is the most intense classification, with wind speeds of at least 157mph.

Although Melissa is expected to reduce in intensity to a fourth-level cyclone before arriving at Jamaica, meteorologists said there was "minimal real distinction in the total effects" upon reaching the coast, and that the storm will be "at least that intensity" when it strikes the island.

Critical Preparations

With tropical storm-level gusts and precipitation anticipated well in advance well before it crosses central Jamaica - possibly even the national capital - warnings indicate that "safety measures need to be finalized quickly".

"An extended timeframe of harmful winds and torrential rain are underway and will cause severe and deadly flash flooding and numerous landslides," urged weather authorities.

The country's head of government the official stated: "I understand that there are many Jamaicans who are anxious, who are deeply troubled, and appropriately: you should be concerned.

"But the optimal approach to manage worry and any unease and anxiety is to be prepared."

Residents are being told to fortify their houses with sandbags and timber panels, and to stock up on necessary supplies.

Wider Consequences

Advisories are also ongoing for regions of Haiti encompassing the capital, Port au Prince, the adjacent nation and Cuba's eastern region, where Melissa is expected to bring similar effects by the middle portion of the coming week.

Landslides currently triggered by the cyclone have caused two deaths in the country, according to emergency services.

Future Path

This weather system is predicted to pass over Cuba by the middle of the week before traveling via the Caribbean archipelago and out into the open ocean.

By the point it makes contact with the Caribbean nation, it is predicted to have reduced to a category three storm.

Environmental Background

Although it is hard to associate individual weather events to climate change, researchers say it is causing weather phenomena more prevalent and more extreme.

Increased sea temperatures produce additional humidity in the air, helping fuel the formation of hurricanes.

Prior to the start of this year's Atlantic storm period, climate agencies predicted higher-than-average occurrence, citing elevated ocean temperatures and likely more intense weather patterns around African coastal regions - where tropical systems often form.