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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still